Paper/Speech Details of Conference Program for the 26th NISPAcee Annual Conference Program Overview IX. Transition, Change and Uncertainty Author(s) Gyorgy Gajduschek Corvinus University of Budapest Budapest Hungary Zemandl Eva, Title Change Disturbances and pathological Uncertainty in CEE Public Administration: A conceptual Map and proposed Theory of low administrative Performance File Paper files are available only for conference participants, please login first. Presenter Gyorgy Gajduschek Abstract Post-communist transition started at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s. The depth and breadth of change is considerable, multi-layered and complex, and relatively unprecedented in modern history. However, after more than a quarter century, most of these countries are still in transition, as deep, fundamental, and ongoing changes, particularly in the political and governmental system with spill-over effects into the social system, seem endemic and permanent. This paper is an attempt to identify key causal factors of this permanent large scale change and sticky uncertainty on one hand, and its consequences, on the other. We focus on government, more specifically on the executive, especially on the public administration. We attempt to identify major disturbing factor, such as complete, 180-degree turns in policy direction in several, if not all, policy areas; continuous reorganizations of structures and procedures; and a high level of uncertainty within the civil service including – frequently politically induced – high turnover rates in managerial positions. Relying on organizational theory literature we argue that above a certain level of external change pressures organizations become unable to handle its tasks effectively. In case of public administration the inevitably low organizational performance may cause devastating social effects. The authors sum up their four-year research that also utilized efforts made within NISPAcee’s Working Group on Transition, Change and Uncertainty.
