Policy makers have massive problems imagining that things could be different, and this can easily lead – and in the past it often has – to policy failure. Strategic policy planning often relies on prognoses, expert judgement, or at best ideas of how the future will develop over the mid- to long-term which lacks complexity. Plausible imaginations of structural changes such as geopolitical shifts, technological breakthroughs, political upheavals, wars and conflicts, economic crises, and pandemics are essential for planning and shaping the future successfully. Looking back at the past few years, we see many events and their subsequent consequences that took us by surprise. Notably, politics could only react these events under great stress, with enormous expenditure of resources, and with critical delays. If such unplanned futures were anticipated in time, we would have been better prepared and able to react.

Strategic Foresight is a toolbox that can be used by policy makers – to envision alternative developments to avoid surprises and to prepare for, or even successfully shape, the future. Although most policymakers have heard of scenarios, horizon scanning, and megatrends, their understanding is often insufficient to select the right tools for their specific planning problem. In particular, if policy planners want to enlist external help in conducting a foresight project, they need to have enough expertise to formulate a tailored request for a proposal (RFP).

This course will equip participants with the relevant knowledge about the most essential foresight tools, how these tools can be combined and what it takes to implement them. Participants will learn about explorative scenarios, horizon scanning, megatrends, Delphi analysis, and wild cards. More importantly, participants will learn how to make foresight products that are useful for policy planning, by transforming foresights into strategic foresight.

What will you learn:

Understand the nature, benefits, and limitations of strategic foresight – Get an overview about the entire foresight toolbox.
Gain a deeper understanding of the scenario methodology
Get a better understanding of how to use strategic foresight in policy planning and decision-making.