NISPAcee Annual Conference
American University of Armenia
Poland: Recession model or idiosyncratic traditionalist?
Paper files are available only for conference participants, please
Abstract not available
Poland demonstrated a solid financial performance during the 2007-12 recession. The paper will examine the financial performance using a model consisting of risk, uncertainty, incentives and security, in order to pursue the research question; what explains the Polish 2007-12 positive financial performance during a period causing its European neighbors to suffer significant down-side effects? Should the model prove illuminating, it will be tested against other European countries during 2014, in order to examine its wider applicability. The model will be operationalized as follows: risk: reliance on European parent banks against recalling their liabilities, particularly foreign currency; uncertainty: vulnerability to foreign spillovers from escalating financial and sovereign stress in the euro area; incentives: likelihood of continuing adverse external financial shocks; incentives: fiscal consolidation, economic growth vs. austerity (spending patterns), unemployment reduction; security: capital and liquidity support as well as approach to non-performing loans. Further measures will be utilized by the Global Competitiveness Report for 2011-12, that ranks the world on 12 pillars of competitiveness including institutions, infrastructure, macro economic environment, health and primary education, higher education and training, labor market efficiency, technological readiness, market size, business sophistocation and innovation.